SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A regime of broadly cyclonic mean flow will prevail over the
central/northern Plains eastward to the middle and norther Atlantic
Coast, modulated by two primary, progressive, subsynoptic troughs
and an intervening ridge.  The first trough -- initially located
over the Mid-Atlantic, will move quickly offshore through midday and
into early afternoon, while weakening.  The northern part of
associated, predominantly maritime convective potential, may yield
isolated thunder this morning near coastal southeastern New England
and adjoining islands.  The upstream trough was evident in moisture-
channel imagery from northern MB across southeastern SK to southern
MT.  This trough will move eastward and southeastward, reaching
northern ON, the upper Great Lakes, a IL, and MO by 12Z tomorrow. 
Mid/upper ridging will persist over FL, keeping both flow aloft and
deep shear weak for convection over that area. 

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary frontal zone
oriented roughly northeast/southwest across the central FL
Peninsula, with only very minor movement likely through the
remainder of the period.  Near and south of the front, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in a very moist,
weakly capped environment also characterized by modest mid/upper-
level lapse rates averaged through stable layers aloft (per 12Z
MFL/EYW/TBW soundings).

..Edwads.. 10/05/2020

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