SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A regime of broadly cyclonic mean flow will prevail over the central/northern Plains eastward to the middle and norther Atlantic Coast, modulated by two primary, progressive, subsynoptic troughs and an intervening ridge. The first trough -- initially located over the Mid-Atlantic, will move quickly offshore through midday and into early afternoon, while weakening. The northern part of associated, predominantly maritime convective potential, may yield isolated thunder this morning near coastal southeastern New England and adjoining islands. The upstream trough was evident in moisture- channel imagery from northern MB across southeastern SK to southern MT. This trough will move eastward and southeastward, reaching northern ON, the upper Great Lakes, a IL, and MO by 12Z tomorrow. Mid/upper ridging will persist over FL, keeping both flow aloft and deep shear weak for convection over that area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary frontal zone oriented roughly northeast/southwest across the central FL Peninsula, with only very minor movement likely through the remainder of the period. Near and south of the front, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in a very moist, weakly capped environment also characterized by modest mid/upper- level lapse rates averaged through stable layers aloft (per 12Z MFL/EYW/TBW soundings). ..Edwads.. 10/05/2020
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