Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that an initially strong,
zonal mid/upper jet, emerging from the northern mid-latitude
Pacific, will undergo considerable amplification late this week
through next weekend.  It appears that this will include the
evolution of significant large-scale troughing migrating inland of
the Pacific coast, across the Great Basin, Rockies and Great Plains 
by early next week.  By next Sunday, deepening surface troughing and
embedded cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies may contribute to
potential for the development of a substantive southerly return flow
off the Gulf of Mexico, which could continue into Monday.  This
could contribute to sufficient destabilization to support the
evolution of organized severe storms across parts of the Great
Plains into Mississippi Valley, in the presence of strong vertical
shear.

However, considerable spread exists within and among the various
models concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, at
this extended range.  And latest model output suggests that
deep-layered low-level moisture return may be complicated by the
preceding inland migration of a tropical cyclone late this week into
early next weekend.

This cyclone (currently Tropical Depression Twenty-Six) is forecast
to intensify to hurricane strength across the Gulf of Mexico within
the next few days, then  migrate inland across the north central
Gulf coast by Friday night before weakening.  It too could be
accompanied by a risk for severe weather, in the form of tornadoes. 
However, reinforcement of potentially cool air across much of the
Gulf States, in the days prior to landfall, contributes to
uncertainty concerning the extent of this potential inland of
immediate coastal areas.

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