SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow will dominate the northern and eastern CONUS through the period, with upper ridging persisting across the western U.S. An 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak is expected to overspread the Great Lakes region by the second half of the day as an amplifying mid-level trough pivots around the broader cyclonic flow. Deep-layer flow is expected to exceed 40 knots throughout the troposhere above 925 mb. While buoyancy is expected to be relatively scant across the Upper Great Lakes, a few guidance members depict up to 50-150 J/kg MUCAPE, mainly concentrated in the lowest few hundred mb. However, given deep-layer ascent in place, any deeper convective cells that manage to develop may produce a few lightning flashes in addition to gusty winds. Across the Florida Peninsula and coastline of the Carolinas, a couple of thunderstorms may develop on the fringe of greater buoyancy associated with low-level moist advection in advance of approaching Hurricane Delta located in the northwest Caribbean. Otherwise, large-scale subsidence across the western CONUS and cool/dry low-level conditions across the central/east-central U.S will limit convective potential. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2020
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