SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

Large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow will dominate the northern and
eastern CONUS through the period, with upper ridging persisting
across the western U.S. An 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak is expected to
overspread the Great Lakes region by the second half of the day as
an amplifying mid-level trough pivots around the broader cyclonic
flow. Deep-layer flow is expected to exceed 40 knots throughout the
troposhere above 925 mb. While buoyancy is expected to be relatively
scant across the Upper Great Lakes, a few guidance members depict up
to 50-150 J/kg MUCAPE, mainly concentrated in the lowest few hundred
mb. However, given deep-layer ascent in place, any deeper convective
cells that manage to develop may produce a few lightning flashes in
addition to gusty winds. 

Across the Florida Peninsula and coastline of the Carolinas, a
couple of thunderstorms may develop on the fringe of greater
buoyancy associated with low-level moist advection in advance of
approaching Hurricane Delta located in the northwest Caribbean.
Otherwise, large-scale subsidence across the western CONUS and
cool/dry low-level conditions across the central/east-central U.S
will limit convective potential.

..Squitieri.. 10/06/2020

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