SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broadly cyclonic pattern will persist through
the period from the central/northern Plains across the Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/New England.  An embedded shortwave
trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over southeastern MB
and northwestern MN -- should move east-southeastward across the
northern upper Great Lakes and adjoining parts of northern ON
through the period, reaching southern ON and approaching Lake
Ontario by 12Z.  Associated large-scale ascent (warm advection and
DCVA) and related steepening of lapse rates in a marginally moist
environment, will contribute to potential for isolated, shallow
thunderstorms within a broader convective plume forecast to track
ahead of the height axis.  This activity may reach areas of northern
NY near Lake Ontario before 12Z tomorrow morning.

At the surface, a persistent, wavy, warm to stationary frontal zone
was drawn at 11Z from the Gulf Stream offshore of the Carolinas,
southwestward over central FL, arching westward then southward over
the northeastern and south-central Gulf.  The low-level frontal zone
should drift northward through the period.  Associated frontal lift,
low-level warm advection and rich near-surface moisture should
offset modest mid/upper lapse rates enough to support isolated,
episodic thunderstorms across the north-central/northeastern Gulf,
FL and immediate coastal areas from GA to the southern Outer Banks.

..Edwards.. 10/06/2020

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