SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broadly cyclonic pattern will persist through the period from the central/northern Plains across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/New England. An embedded shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over southeastern MB and northwestern MN -- should move east-southeastward across the northern upper Great Lakes and adjoining parts of northern ON through the period, reaching southern ON and approaching Lake Ontario by 12Z. Associated large-scale ascent (warm advection and DCVA) and related steepening of lapse rates in a marginally moist environment, will contribute to potential for isolated, shallow thunderstorms within a broader convective plume forecast to track ahead of the height axis. This activity may reach areas of northern NY near Lake Ontario before 12Z tomorrow morning. At the surface, a persistent, wavy, warm to stationary frontal zone was drawn at 11Z from the Gulf Stream offshore of the Carolinas, southwestward over central FL, arching westward then southward over the northeastern and south-central Gulf. The low-level frontal zone should drift northward through the period. Associated frontal lift, low-level warm advection and rich near-surface moisture should offset modest mid/upper lapse rates enough to support isolated, episodic thunderstorms across the north-central/northeastern Gulf, FL and immediate coastal areas from GA to the southern Outer Banks. ..Edwards.. 10/06/2020
There’s more click here.