SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong mid-level short-wave trough over the upper Great Lakes digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. Strong height falls will spread ahead of this feature into the lower Great Lakes by 12z. Sporadic lightning has been noted with convection that has developed in response to this feature, and isolated lightning can be expected the remainder of tonight with convection that develops along a progressive front that will surge across WI/MI. By sunrise, weak convection should approach western NY. Across the southeast, weak short-wave trough is moving off the Carolina coast and subsidence should not be favorable for thunderstorms the rest of the period. Have adjusted 10 percent thunder probabilities to reflect this evolution. ..Darrow.. 10/07/2020
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