Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate considerable
amplification within the westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific
into North America this weekend into early next week.  However,
there has been considerable spread within the output concerning the
short wave developments.  This persists and appears to increase,
particularly through the early to middle portion of next week in the
latest model runs.

The pattern still appears likely to include the evolution of
large-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast, through
the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains by Sunday.  This
probably will be accompanied by deepening surface troughing to the
lee of the Rockies, and embedded surface cyclogenesis Sunday through
Sunday night, which may provide the focus for the most appreciable
severe weather potential during this period.  Where forcing for
ascent may be most conducive, across the northern Great Plains, the
extent of this potential remains unclear due to uncertain low-level
moisture return, in the wake of inland migrating Hurricane Delta.

The remnants of Delta might still pose some risk for severe weather
east of the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday, but
weak/negligible boundary-layer instability will probably remain a
mitigating factor, particularly as low-level wind fields and shear

Otherwise, elsewhere through the remainder of the period, low
pattern predictability is a major issue, but guidance, in general,
appears to suggest that any severe weather potential may remain
relatively minor.

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