SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across parts of south-central/southeastern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi today and tonight. ...South-central and Southeast Louisiana/Far Southern Mississippi... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Delta to approach the southwestern Louisiana coast this afternoon and move onshore around 00Z/Saturday. Rainbands with moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread southern Louisiana today and move into southern Mississippi this evening. RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in southeast Louisiana (to the northeast of Delta's center) have 0-1 km shear in the 40 to 50 kt range. Winds at the surface are easterly but veer to the south-southeast in the mid-levels. The strong low-level shear should will support rotating storms with cells that remain semi-discrete in the rainbands of Delta. A few tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts appear likely with storms that exhibit supercell characteristics. The tornado threat should impact the south-central coast of Louisiana first and then expand eastward to near New Orleans in the afternoon. The tornado threat is forecast to spread northeastward this evening into areas north of Lake Pontchartrain and far southern Mississippi. A tornado threat could persist into the overnight period as Delta weakens to a tropical storm and moves further inland across the lower Mississippi Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 10/09/2020
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