SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST LA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi later this afternoon into tonight. ...North central Gulf coast area through tonight... Hurricane Delta will move northward and make landfall this evening along the southwest LA coast, and continue inland toward northeast LA overnight (please see the latest NHC advisories for additional information). Though Delta will weaken as it moves over cooler shelf waters and experiences more land influences, expansion of the hurricane's wind field will lead to increasingly favorable hodographs for supercells in the east-northeast quadrants of the storm later today into tonight. A limiting factor thus far has been the lack of a coherent eastern convective band. This suggests that the tornado threat may be slow to develop today, and will likely need peak afternoon destabilization in cloud breaks across southeast LA. Still, effective SRH will increase to greater than 300 m2/s2 this afternoon into this evening as Delta approaches the coast, and there will be sufficient buoyancy for a supercell/tornado threat in the zone of somewhat larger CAPE across southeast LA. The threat for a couple of tornadoes will spread inland some tonight, but should be tempered by diminishing buoyancy with time and northward extent. The northern extent of the tornado threat this afternoon into tonight will be delimited by a surface warm front that will move northward. The warm front now extends from southeast LA across southern MS/AL, and may provide a focus for isolated strong storms this afternoon. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 10/09/2020
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