SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across parts of Alabama and Mississippi. Severe gusts are possible across parts of northern New York into western Maine. ...MS/AL/Fl Panhandle... Tropical cyclone Delta will move from northeast Louisiana to near the AL/MS/TN border during the period according to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. A very moist airmass will become conditionally unstable during the day amidst thinning cloud cover/cloud breaks within the southeast quadrant of Delta. Modest heating will contribute to weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) maximizing in an arc from southwest AL northward near the AL/MS border and protruding north-northwestward into north-central MS by mid-late afternoon. It appears a window of opportunity for appreciable destabilization will overlap with strong low-level flow/enlarged hodographs to yield a risk for a more focused zone of low-level mesoyclone potential. It seems the tornado threat will be highest during the afternoon and perhaps linger into the early evening before diminishing coincident with the loss of diurnal heating. ...Northern New England into western NY... An upper trough is forecast to amplify across Quebec, with strong low to mid-level west-southwesterly flow overspreading much of the Northeast by Saturday afternoon. A cold front initially near the St. Lawrence Valley at midday will move east-southeastward across New England and the Adirondacks by early Saturday evening. Although only limited low-level moisture is forecast in advance of the cold front (50s deg F), cool 500mb temperatures around -16 deg C will yield 200-800 J/kg MLCAPE from the Mohawk Valley northward into western Maine. A broken band of low-topped storms is forecast by mid afternoon and expected to grow upscale with time. The strong to very strong low-level westerly flow will enlarge hodographs such that a tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the primary severe risk will be scattered damaging gusts associated with a combination of fast-moving clusters/linear segments via momentum transport. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early evening as storms move east of the instability axis and nocturnal stabilization lessens the risk for severe gusts. ..Smith.. 10/09/2020
There’s more click here.