SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
WESTERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across parts of Alabama and
Mississippi.  Severe gusts are possible across parts of northern New
York into western Maine.

...MS/AL/Fl Panhandle...
Tropical cyclone Delta will move from northeast Louisiana to near
the AL/MS/TN border during the period according to the latest
National Hurricane Center forecast.  A very moist airmass will
become conditionally unstable during the day amidst thinning cloud
cover/cloud breaks within the southeast quadrant of Delta.  Modest
heating will contribute to weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE)
maximizing in an arc from southwest AL northward near the AL/MS
border and protruding north-northwestward into north-central MS by
mid-late afternoon.  It appears a window of opportunity for
appreciable destabilization will overlap with strong low-level
flow/enlarged hodographs to yield a risk for a more focused zone of
low-level mesoyclone potential.  It seems the tornado threat will be
highest during the afternoon and perhaps linger into the early
evening before diminishing coincident with the loss of diurnal
heating.

...Northern New England into western NY...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify across Quebec, with strong
low to mid-level west-southwesterly flow overspreading much of the
Northeast by Saturday afternoon.  A cold front initially near the
St. Lawrence Valley at midday will move east-southeastward across
New England and the Adirondacks by early Saturday evening.  Although
only limited low-level moisture is forecast in advance of the cold
front (50s deg F), cool 500mb temperatures around -16 deg C will
yield 200-800 J/kg MLCAPE from the Mohawk Valley northward into
western Maine.  A broken band of low-topped storms is forecast by
mid afternoon and expected to grow upscale with time.  The strong to
very strong low-level westerly flow will enlarge hodographs such
that a tornado cannot be ruled out.  However, the primary severe
risk will be scattered damaging gusts associated with a combination
of fast-moving clusters/linear segments via momentum transport.  The
severe risk will likely diminish by the early evening as storms move
east of the instability axis and nocturnal stabilization lessens the
risk for severe gusts.

..Smith.. 10/09/2020

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