SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST LA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across southern portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi later this afternoon into tonight.

...Discussion...
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 10/09/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020/

...North central Gulf coast area through tonight...
Hurricane Delta will move northward and make landfall this evening
along the southwest LA coast, and continue inland toward northeast
LA overnight (please see the latest NHC advisories for additional
information).  Though Delta will weaken as it moves over cooler
shelf waters and experiences more land influences, expansion of the
hurricane's wind field will lead to increasingly favorable
hodographs for supercells in the east-northeast quadrants of the
storm later today into tonight.  A limiting factor thus far has been
the lack of a coherent eastern convective band.  This suggests that
the tornado threat may be slow to develop today, and will likely
need peak afternoon destabilization in cloud breaks across southeast
LA.  Still, effective SRH will increase to greater than 300 m2/s2
this afternoon into this evening as Delta approaches the coast, and
there will be sufficient buoyancy for a supercell/tornado threat in
the zone of somewhat larger CAPE across southeast LA.

The threat for a couple of tornadoes will spread inland some
tonight, but should be tempered by diminishing buoyancy with time
and northward extent.  The northern extent of the tornado threat
this afternoon into tonight will be delimited by a surface warm
front that will move northward.  The warm front now extends from
southeast LA across southern MS/AL, and may provide a focus for
isolated strong storms this afternoon.

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