Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough over the Plains should move eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Monday. A surface cold front is likewise expected to sweep eastward across these regions. Strong deep-layer shear will accompany the upper trough, but modest low-level moisture return ahead of the front should tend to limit the amount of instability present across the warm sector. A marginal severe threat may still develop Monday afternoon across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the overall severe risk may be tempered by the lack of greater instability. The cold front is forecast to move off the East Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with strong mid-level westerly winds confined mainly to the northern/central CONUS thereafter. Low-level offshore flow should be generally be maintained across the southern states, which should greatly limit instability across a large majority of the CONUS. Accordingly, organized severe thunderstorm potential from Day 5/Tuesday through the end of the forecast period appears low.
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