Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

A highly amplified upper trough over the Plains should move eastward
across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Monday. A surface cold
front is likewise expected to sweep eastward across these regions.
Strong deep-layer shear will accompany the upper trough, but modest
low-level moisture return ahead of the front should tend to limit
the amount of instability present across the warm sector. A marginal
severe threat may still develop Monday afternoon across portions of
the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the overall severe risk may be tempered
by the lack of greater instability.

The cold front is forecast to move off the East Coast on Day
5/Tuesday, with strong mid-level westerly winds confined mainly to
the northern/central CONUS thereafter. Low-level offshore flow
should be generally be maintained across the southern states, which
should greatly limit instability across a large majority of the
CONUS. Accordingly, organized severe thunderstorm potential from Day
5/Tuesday through the end of the forecast period appears low.

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