SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... A negatively tilted upper-level trough will continue to move east-northeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. A surface cold front will also move eastward over these regions. Although strong mid-level flow will be present with the upper trough, low-level moisture return ahead of the cold front is forecast to remain fairly modest. Generally poor mid-level lapse rates are also expected to limit instability, especially with northward extent across the Great Lakes. Still, isolated storm development along the cold front may occur by Monday afternoon, particularly with southward extent into parts of the OH Valley. Regardless, organized severe storms capable of producing strong/gusty winds appear unlikely at this time owing to the meager surface-based instability forecast. ...Coastal Virginia/North Carolina... A weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance eastward from VA/NC off the East Coast by Monday afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of coastal VA/NC in a weak low-level warm advection regime, and this activity should move offshore through the day. The potential for organized severe storms across this region currently appears low owing to weak instability and modest deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 10/10/2020
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