SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will continue to move
east-northeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. A
surface cold front will also move eastward over these regions.
Although strong mid-level flow will be present with the upper
trough, low-level moisture return ahead of the cold front is
forecast to remain fairly modest. Generally poor mid-level lapse
rates are also expected to limit instability, especially with
northward extent across the Great Lakes. Still, isolated storm
development along the cold front may occur by Monday afternoon,
particularly with southward extent into parts of the OH Valley.
Regardless, organized severe storms capable of producing
strong/gusty winds appear unlikely at this time owing to the meager
surface-based instability forecast. 

...Coastal Virginia/North Carolina...
A weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance eastward from
VA/NC off the East Coast by Monday afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of coastal
VA/NC in a weak low-level warm advection regime, and this activity
should move offshore through the day. The potential for organized
severe storms across this region currently appears low owing to weak
instability and modest deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 10/10/2020

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