SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... A negatively tilted upper trough will progress eastward Monday from the mid/upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Strong (50-60+ kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough passage, and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should be present. At the surface, a cold front will also sweep quickly eastward across these regions through the day. A line of shallow convection may be ongoing across parts of WI/IL Monday morning, with little severe risk evident owing to minimal surface-based instability. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front is forecast to remain rather limited through the day, especially with northward extent across the Great Lakes. Farther south across IN, KY, and western OH, low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints may spread northward into these areas in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Regardless, forecast soundings from various guidance suggest that a low-level inversion will probably suppress vigorous convective development across this region, even as mainly elevated instability modestly increases through Monday afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool with the approach of the upper trough. At this point, the potential for strong/gusty winds to reach the surface with low-topped convection along the front appears too limited to include low probabilities for severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Virginia/North Carolina... A weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to advance eastward from VA/NC off the East Coast by late Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of coastal VA/NC in a weak low-level warm advection regime, and this activity should move offshore through the day. The potential for organized severe storms across this region still appears low owing to weak instability and modest deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 10/11/2020
There’s more click here.