SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
A negatively tilted upper trough will progress eastward Monday from
the mid/upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Strong
(50-60+ kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will accompany this upper
trough passage, and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should be
present. At the surface, a cold front will also sweep quickly
eastward across these regions through the day. A line of shallow
convection may be ongoing across parts of WI/IL Monday morning, with
little severe risk evident owing to minimal surface-based
instability. 

Low-level moisture return ahead of the front is forecast to remain
rather limited through the day, especially with northward extent
across the Great Lakes. Farther south across IN, KY, and western OH,
low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints may spread northward into
these areas in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Regardless,
forecast soundings from various guidance suggest that a low-level
inversion will probably suppress vigorous convective development
across this region, even as mainly elevated instability modestly
increases through Monday afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool
with the approach of the upper trough. At this point, the potential
for strong/gusty winds to reach the surface with low-topped
convection along the front appears too limited to include low
probabilities for severe wind gusts.

...Coastal Virginia/North Carolina...
A weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to advance
eastward from VA/NC off the East Coast by late Monday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of coastal VA/NC in a weak low-level warm advection
regime, and this activity should move offshore through the day. The
potential for organized severe storms across this region still
appears low owing to weak instability and modest deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 10/11/2020

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