SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough should move northeastward across parts of New England on Tuesday. A surface low should also develop northeastward along/near the coast. Low-level warm advection is forecast to occur through the day ahead of the features. Weak but sufficient MUCAPE may be present to support elevated thunderstorms, mainly along/near the coast. Instability should remain too weak to support an organized severe risk across this region. Farther west, a westerly mid/upper-level jet should advance eastward over parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Cool mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with this jet may support meager instability and perhaps isolated, low-topped storms capable of producing occasional lightning. Even though deep-layer shear will be strong, severe storms are not expected owing to the very marginal instability. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not forecast across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and/or stable conditions should generally prevail. ..Gleason.. 10/11/2020
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