SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough should move northeastward across parts of New
England on Tuesday. A surface low should also develop northeastward
along/near the coast. Low-level warm advection is forecast to occur
through the day ahead of the features. Weak but sufficient MUCAPE
may be present to support elevated thunderstorms, mainly along/near
the coast. Instability should remain too weak to support an
organized severe risk across this region.

Farther west, a westerly mid/upper-level jet should advance eastward
over parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Cool
mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with this jet may
support meager instability and perhaps isolated, low-topped storms
capable of producing occasional lightning. Even though deep-layer
shear will be strong, severe storms are not expected owing to the
very marginal instability. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not forecast
across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and/or stable conditions
should generally prevail.

..Gleason.. 10/11/2020

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