SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to extend from central
Saskatchewan southeastward into the lower MO Valley early Monday,
before continuing northeastward throughout the day. Relatively
low-amplitude upper flow is anticipated in the wake of this trough,
with moderate to strong north-northwesterly flow extending from the
Pacific Northwest into the Upper Great Lakes by early Tuesday
morning. 

At the surface, a cold front associated with the negatively tilted
upper trough will likely stretch from far northwest WI southward
into west-central IL and then back southwestward through the TX Hill
Country early Monday. Gradual eastward/southeastward progression of
this front is anticipated throughout the day, with the front
forecast to extend from western Lake Erie to the middle Rio Grande
Valley by 00Z Tuesday. Predominantly stable conditions are expected
ahead of the front, precluding thunderstorm development. The only
exception is over portions of the Upper Midwest through the Upper
Great Lakes, where cooler mid-level temperatures and strong forcing
for ascent may result in a few storms deep enough to produce
lightning. A few convectively augmented gusts strong enough to
produce damage may occur along the front, but, given the meager
instability, uncertainty on occurrence and coverage remains high.  

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the remnants of
Delta and amid early period surface cyclogenesis (associated with
the previously mentioned, negatively tilted upper trough) over NC.
Weak wind fields and modest instability should preclude any severe
risk. A few strikes are also possible amid the moist air mass across
southern FL.

..Mosier.. 10/11/2020

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