SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to extend from central Saskatchewan southeastward into the lower MO Valley early Monday, before continuing northeastward throughout the day. Relatively low-amplitude upper flow is anticipated in the wake of this trough, with moderate to strong north-northwesterly flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Great Lakes by early Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely stretch from far northwest WI southward into west-central IL and then back southwestward through the TX Hill Country early Monday. Gradual eastward/southeastward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with the front forecast to extend from western Lake Erie to the middle Rio Grande Valley by 00Z Tuesday. Predominantly stable conditions are expected ahead of the front, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is over portions of the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes, where cooler mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent may result in a few storms deep enough to produce lightning. A few convectively augmented gusts strong enough to produce damage may occur along the front, but, given the meager instability, uncertainty on occurrence and coverage remains high. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the remnants of Delta and amid early period surface cyclogenesis (associated with the previously mentioned, negatively tilted upper trough) over NC. Weak wind fields and modest instability should preclude any severe risk. A few strikes are also possible amid the moist air mass across southern FL. ..Mosier.. 10/11/2020
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