Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal westerly mid-level flow across much of the northern/central CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should transition to a more amplified pattern as large-scale upper troughing develops over the central CONUS. Further amplification of this upper trough appears likely across the eastern CONUS from Day 5/Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Minimal low-level moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front across the central/eastern states should keep organized severe thunderstorm potential low through at least mid week. Model differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough increase over the eastern states from Day 6/Friday onward. Still, if a slower, more amplified upper trough were to develop as some guidance suggests, then an organized severe risk could materialize across some portion of the eastern states around Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. However, predictability remains far too low to include any severe probabilities at this extended time frame.
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