Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal westerly mid-level flow across much of the
northern/central CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should transition to a
more amplified pattern as large-scale upper troughing develops over
the central CONUS. Further amplification of this upper trough
appears likely across the eastern CONUS from Day 5/Thursday through
the upcoming weekend. Minimal low-level moisture return ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front across the central/eastern states
should keep organized severe thunderstorm potential low through at
least mid week. Model differences regarding the evolution of the
upper trough increase over the eastern states from Day 6/Friday
onward. Still, if a slower, more amplified upper trough were to
develop as some guidance suggests, then an organized severe risk
could materialize across some portion of the eastern states around
Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. However, predictability remains
far too low to include any severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.

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