SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Strongly forced band of frontal convection is forecast to spread across the upper Midwest/Mid-MS Valley region by sunrise this morning in response to a strong, progressive short-wave trough. This mid-level feature will translate to a position from eastern MN-MO by 18z, then eject into the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley by the end of the period. Latest model guidance is not particularly aggressive in destabilizing the warm sector immediately ahead of the cold front, as low-level lapse rates will remain poor. Even so, strong mid-level forcing for ascent will result in saturation atop the boundary layer such that parcels lifted above 850mb will yield sufficient MUCAPE for elevated thunderstorms. This activity should spread east in association with the surging cold front, likely peaking in flash intensity over WI/lower MI during the daylight hours. Downstream, a few weak thunderstorms may develop ahead of the remnant short-wave trough related to TC Delta. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and buoyancy, but moist soundings combined with some warm advection may prove adequate for at least a 10 percent probability for lightning with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/12/2020
There’s more click here.