SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.


Strongly forced band of frontal convection is forecast to spread
across the upper Midwest/Mid-MS Valley region by sunrise this
morning in response to a strong, progressive short-wave trough. This
mid-level feature will translate to a position from eastern MN-MO by
18z, then eject into the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley by the
end of the period. Latest model guidance is not particularly
aggressive in destabilizing the warm sector immediately ahead of the
cold front, as low-level lapse rates will remain poor. Even so,
strong mid-level forcing for ascent will result in saturation atop
the boundary layer such that parcels lifted above 850mb will yield
sufficient MUCAPE for elevated thunderstorms. This activity should
spread east in association with the surging cold front, likely
peaking in flash intensity over WI/lower MI during the daylight

Downstream, a few weak thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
remnant short-wave trough related to TC Delta. Forecast soundings
exhibit poor lapse rates and buoyancy, but moist soundings combined
with some warm advection may prove adequate for at least a 10
percent probability for lightning with the strongest updrafts.

..Darrow/Moore.. 10/12/2020

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