SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward across parts of New
England on Tuesday. A surface low is also forecast to develop
northeastward off the coast. Low-level warm advection is forecast to
occur through the day ahead of the features. Weak but sufficient
MUCAPE should be present to support elevated thunderstorms, mainly
along/near the coast. Instability should remain too weak to support
an organized severe risk across this region.

Farther west, a westerly mid/upper-level jet will advance eastward
over parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Cool
mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with this jet may
support meager instability and perhaps isolated, low-topped storms
capable of producing occasional lightning. Even though deep-layer
shear will be strong, severe storms are not expected owing to the
very marginal instability. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not forecast
across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and/or stable conditions
should generally prevail.

..Gleason.. 10/12/2020

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