SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive shortwave trough will continue east-northeastward
today from the Upper Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes/Ontario
through tonight. A related cold front will progress
east-southeastward across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Preceding this front, warm-sector destabilization is expected to
remain limited even with north-northeastward moisture transport
occurring ahead of the front. Similar to ongoing early day
thunderstorms across western Wisconsin, stronger forcing for ascent
with northward extent should yield a somewhat greater coverage of
scattered/mostly elevated thunderstorms today across Wisconsin and
the Lake Michigan vicinity into Lower Michigan. Farther south, weak
surface-based destabilization could occur by mid/late afternoon
across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. While a strong storm or two
cannot be entirely ruled out, organized severe potential should be
limited by modest low-level convergence/residual mid-level capping.

..Guyer/Goss.. 10/12/2020

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