SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive shortwave trough will continue east-northeastward today from the Upper Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes/Ontario through tonight. A related cold front will progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Preceding this front, warm-sector destabilization is expected to remain limited even with north-northeastward moisture transport occurring ahead of the front. Similar to ongoing early day thunderstorms across western Wisconsin, stronger forcing for ascent with northward extent should yield a somewhat greater coverage of scattered/mostly elevated thunderstorms today across Wisconsin and the Lake Michigan vicinity into Lower Michigan. Farther south, weak surface-based destabilization could occur by mid/late afternoon across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. While a strong storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out, organized severe potential should be limited by modest low-level convergence/residual mid-level capping. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/12/2020
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