Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that a large-scale
upper trough will amplify as it moves across the eastern CONUS from
Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. A related surface cold front
should also advance across the eastern states in this time frame.
Modest destabilization ahead of the front may occur Friday across
parts of the Carolinas and vicinity. Depending on the timing of the
upper trough and cold front, an isolated/marginal severe threat
could develop across this area given adequate forecast shear. But,
predictability still remains low. In the wake of the cold front
moving off the East Coast, severe potential appears low across the
CONUS on Day 6/Saturday. The evolution of another large-scale upper
trough over the central CONUS and Midwest/Great Lakes region appears
highly uncertain late this upcoming weekend into early next week.
Some low-level moisture return may occur ahead of this feature, but
far too much uncertainty in the synoptic-scale upper pattern
currently exists to confidently assess organized severe thunderstorm
potential at this extended time frame.

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