Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that a large-scale upper trough will amplify as it moves across the eastern CONUS from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. A related surface cold front should also advance across the eastern states in this time frame. Modest destabilization ahead of the front may occur Friday across parts of the Carolinas and vicinity. Depending on the timing of the upper trough and cold front, an isolated/marginal severe threat could develop across this area given adequate forecast shear. But, predictability still remains low. In the wake of the cold front moving off the East Coast, severe potential appears low across the CONUS on Day 6/Saturday. The evolution of another large-scale upper trough over the central CONUS and Midwest/Great Lakes region appears highly uncertain late this upcoming weekend into early next week. Some low-level moisture return may occur ahead of this feature, but far too much uncertainty in the synoptic-scale upper pattern currently exists to confidently assess organized severe thunderstorm potential at this extended time frame.
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