SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

No major changes were made to the previous outlook. Only isolated,
general thunderstorm activity is expected along the northern tier of
states.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020/

...Synopsis...
A series of embedded shortwave troughs will move eastward across the
northern tier of the CONUS, within a zonal flow regime.  The first
trough is moving over the lower Great Lakes/Appalachians as of late
morning.  Warm advection in advance of this trough, in combination
with weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg) rooted in the 850-700 mb
layer, will support some elevated convection and the potential for
isolated lightning flashes this afternoon across southeast New
England.  An upstream trough approaching the upper Great Lakes could
also produce isolated lightning flashes this afternoon with very
weak buoyancy over eastern Upper MI and northern Lower MI. 
Otherwise, a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this
morning along and west of the Cascades as an intense jet streak
approaches the WA coast.  The left-exit region of this jet streak,
and associated steeper lapse rates/weak buoyancy, will spread inland
and affect northern MT and northwestern ND late in the period.

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