SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States through tonight. No major changes were made to the previous outlook. Only isolated, general thunderstorm activity is expected along the northern tier of states. ..Jewell.. 10/13/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020/ ...Synopsis... A series of embedded shortwave troughs will move eastward across the northern tier of the CONUS, within a zonal flow regime. The first trough is moving over the lower Great Lakes/Appalachians as of late morning. Warm advection in advance of this trough, in combination with weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg) rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, will support some elevated convection and the potential for isolated lightning flashes this afternoon across southeast New England. An upstream trough approaching the upper Great Lakes could also produce isolated lightning flashes this afternoon with very weak buoyancy over eastern Upper MI and northern Lower MI. Otherwise, a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this morning along and west of the Cascades as an intense jet streak approaches the WA coast. The left-exit region of this jet streak, and associated steeper lapse rates/weak buoyancy, will spread inland and affect northern MT and northwestern ND late in the period.
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