Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A marginal/isolated severe threat may develop across parts of the
Carolinas on Day 4/Friday ahead of an eastward-moving upper trough
and surface cold front. However, the forecast combination of
instability and shear do not appear sufficient to include a 15%
severe area at this time. The cold front will clear nearly the
entire East Coast on Day 5/Saturday as the upper trough pivots
northeastward across the western Atlantic and Canadian Maritimes,
with little severe potential evident across the CONUS. The evolution
of another upper trough over the central CONUS late this upcoming
weekend into early next week still remains uncertain. Some
deterministic guidance shows a more amplified solution, which would
encourage the development of a stronger and more poleward surface
low. Depending on the timing/placement of the upper trough and the
quality/northward extent of substantial low-level moisture return,
some severe risk may develop from late Day 6/Sunday through the end
of the period across parts of the southern Plains into the mid/lower
MS Valley as a cold front moves southeastward across these regions.
Regardless, predictability is too low to delineate any severe areas
at this extended time frame.

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