Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A marginal/isolated severe threat may develop across parts of the Carolinas on Day 4/Friday ahead of an eastward-moving upper trough and surface cold front. However, the forecast combination of instability and shear do not appear sufficient to include a 15% severe area at this time. The cold front will clear nearly the entire East Coast on Day 5/Saturday as the upper trough pivots northeastward across the western Atlantic and Canadian Maritimes, with little severe potential evident across the CONUS. The evolution of another upper trough over the central CONUS late this upcoming weekend into early next week still remains uncertain. Some deterministic guidance shows a more amplified solution, which would encourage the development of a stronger and more poleward surface low. Depending on the timing/placement of the upper trough and the quality/northward extent of substantial low-level moisture return, some severe risk may develop from late Day 6/Sunday through the end of the period across parts of the southern Plains into the mid/lower MS Valley as a cold front moves southeastward across these regions. Regardless, predictability is too low to delineate any severe areas at this extended time frame.
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