SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for strong to locally severe gusts is forecast across parts
of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon into
the early evening.

...Synopsis...
Broad, strong cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass much of the
northern tier of states today with a series of disturbances
migrating eastward.  A surface low is forecast to develop from ND
eastward across the Upper Midwest and into Ontario by early Thursday
morning.  While this low deepens, strong large-scale forcing for
ascent (DCVA) will overspread MN and into WI during peak heating. 
Despite marginal boundary-layer moisture with surface dewpoints only
reaching into the lower 40s F, very cold mid-level temperatures
coupled with adequate surface heating, will yield marginal
instability near the surface low and perhaps along a trailing
surface trough.  Isolated to widely scattered low-topped convection
is probable with a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning
according to forecast soundings.  The steep low- to mid-level lapse
rates and strong flow (40-50 kt around 700mb) may yield an
environment locally supporting gusty winds with the deeper
convection.  The potential for convectively aided gusts will likely
maximize during the 20z-00z period from MN into northwest WI, with
wind potential diminishing after sunset.

Elsewhere, relatively dry and/or stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorms across the remaining contiguous United States.

..Smith/Moore.. 10/14/2020

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