SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A risk for strong to locally severe gusts is forecast across parts of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... Broad, strong cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass much of the northern tier of states today with a series of disturbances migrating eastward. A surface low is forecast to develop from ND eastward across the Upper Midwest and into Ontario by early Thursday morning. While this low deepens, strong large-scale forcing for ascent (DCVA) will overspread MN and into WI during peak heating. Despite marginal boundary-layer moisture with surface dewpoints only reaching into the lower 40s F, very cold mid-level temperatures coupled with adequate surface heating, will yield marginal instability near the surface low and perhaps along a trailing surface trough. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped convection is probable with a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning according to forecast soundings. The steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and strong flow (40-50 kt around 700mb) may yield an environment locally supporting gusty winds with the deeper convection. The potential for convectively aided gusts will likely maximize during the 20z-00z period from MN into northwest WI, with wind potential diminishing after sunset. Elsewhere, relatively dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the remaining contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 10/14/2020
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