SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough should develop east-northeastward from
the MS Valley vicinity across the eastern states on Friday. At the
surface, a cold front stretching from GA to the Mid-Atlantic is
forecast to move east-southeastward. A weak surface low should
develop from parts of the Carolinas to southern New England by the
end of the period. Although some increase in low-level moisture is
forecast ahead of the cold front, forecast soundings from various
guidance indicate mid-level lapse rates should remain particularly
poor. This will probably limit updraft strength/intensity, even as
mid-level southwesterly winds and related deep-layer shear slowly
increase through the day across portions of the central/eastern
Carolinas and vicinity. Have opted to not include low severe
probabilities across this region at this time, as the forecast poor
mid-level lapse rates and a low-level inversion suggest limited
severe wind potential. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may occur
ahead of the front across parts of the East Coast from FL to VA, and
in a low-level warm advection regime late Friday night cross
portions of southern New England.

..Gleason.. 10/14/2020

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