SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough should develop east-northeastward from the MS Valley vicinity across the eastern states on Friday. At the surface, a cold front stretching from GA to the Mid-Atlantic is forecast to move east-southeastward. A weak surface low should develop from parts of the Carolinas to southern New England by the end of the period. Although some increase in low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the cold front, forecast soundings from various guidance indicate mid-level lapse rates should remain particularly poor. This will probably limit updraft strength/intensity, even as mid-level southwesterly winds and related deep-layer shear slowly increase through the day across portions of the central/eastern Carolinas and vicinity. Have opted to not include low severe probabilities across this region at this time, as the forecast poor mid-level lapse rates and a low-level inversion suggest limited severe wind potential. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may occur ahead of the front across parts of the East Coast from FL to VA, and in a low-level warm advection regime late Friday night cross portions of southern New England. ..Gleason.. 10/14/2020
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