SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A strong/severe wind gust or two may occur this afternoon over
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley region.

...Upper MS Valley this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone over the
Dakotas will progress east-southeastward over the upper MS Valley
this afternoon/evening.  This will occur within an amplifying
larger-scale trough over the north central CONUS (downstream from a
building ridge over the eastern Pacific).  Cold midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates, in combination with daytime
heating in cloud breaks and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the
40s, will support surface-based CAPE around 250 J/kg this afternoon
in the warm sector just south-southeast of the surface cyclone. 
Surface heating/mixing and ascent within the left-exit region of the
mid-upper jet should support at least isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon.  The combination of steep low-level lapse rates, 50 kt
midlevel flow and long hodographs will support some threat for
fast-moving cells capable of producing isolated strong/damaging
gusts.  Gusty winds may also occur with low-topped, skeletal
convection along the trailing cold front into the northern High
Plains.

...Elsewhere...
A warm advection regime will persist into tonight across the Ozarks
in advance of a cold front moving southeastward across the central
Plains.  There may be sufficient moistening for some elevated
showers late tonight in the vicinity of southwest MO, but elevated
thunderstorms appear unlikely.  Shallow convection is expected along
residual boundaries near the northeast FL/GA coasts and the middle
TX coast, but the threat for deep convection with lightning appears
minimal.

..Thompson.. 10/14/2020

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