SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will encompass much of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with a tight midlevel temperature gradient extending from the northern Rockies to the mid Mississippi Valley into the northeastern states. At the surface, low pressure will eject northeastward from eastern Ontario into western Quebec coincident with a negative-tilt lead wave, with a cold front roughly from western New York to central Texas during the afternoon. Modest levels of low-level moisture will exist ahead of the cold front from Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley during the day, with poor lapse rates aloft and little shear. Lift along the cold front may support isolated, weak thunderstorms across this region, if the cap can be breached. Other diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible from southeast Montana into western South Dakota north of the midlevel jet where lapse rates will be steep and where heating will occur. The best instability profiles will be over south Florida, where heating will combine with increasing moisture out of the southeast for a few daytime storms. Severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, although a front will push east across Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York late in the day, forecast soundings indicate only shallow convection with little if any lightning potential, likely rendering the strong deep-layer shear ineffective. ..Jewell.. 10/14/2020
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