SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous
United States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will encompass much of the
northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with a
tight midlevel temperature gradient extending from the northern
Rockies to the mid Mississippi Valley into the northeastern states.
At the surface, low pressure will eject northeastward from eastern
Ontario into western Quebec coincident with a negative-tilt lead
wave, with a cold front roughly from western New York to central
Texas during the afternoon.

Modest levels of low-level moisture will exist ahead of the cold
front from Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley during the day,
with poor lapse rates aloft and little shear. Lift along the cold
front may support isolated, weak thunderstorms across this region,
if the cap can be breached.

Other diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
from southeast Montana into western South Dakota north of the
midlevel jet where lapse rates will be steep and where heating will
occur.

The best instability profiles will be over south Florida, where
heating will combine with increasing moisture out of the southeast
for a few daytime storms. Severe storms are unlikely.

Elsewhere, although a front will push east across Ohio, Pennsylvania
and New York late in the day, forecast soundings indicate only
shallow convection with little if any lightning potential, likely
rendering the strong deep-layer shear ineffective.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2020

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