Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential appears minimal across the CONUS on Day 4/Saturday as a surface low develops northward across New England into Canada, and a cold front clears all of the East Coast except for south FL. There is still substantial model disagreement in medium-range guidance regarding the degree of low-level moisture return across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley this upcoming weekend into early next week. These model discrepancies mainly stem from disagreement in the evolution of another upper trough over the north-central CONUS through early next week. A slower evolution and eastward movement would potentially allow for greater low-level moisture return across the central states. Some severe threat could possibly develop across a part of this broad region from late Day 5/Sunday through the end of the forecast period, with a surface cold front serving as a focus for convection. Regardless, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the synoptic-scale pattern aloft from Day 6/Monday onward to include any severe probabilities.
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