Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears minimal across the CONUS on
Day 4/Saturday as a surface low develops northward across New
England into Canada, and a cold front clears all of the East Coast
except for south FL. There is still substantial model disagreement
in medium-range guidance regarding the degree of low-level moisture
return across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS
Valley this upcoming weekend into early next week. These model
discrepancies mainly stem from disagreement in the evolution of
another upper trough over the north-central CONUS through early next
week. A slower evolution and eastward movement would potentially
allow for greater low-level moisture return across the central
states. Some severe threat could possibly develop across a part of
this broad region from late Day 5/Sunday through the end of the
forecast period, with a surface cold front serving as a focus for
convection. Regardless, there remains too much uncertainty regarding
the synoptic-scale pattern aloft from Day 6/Monday onward to include
any severe probabilities.

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