SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible tonight across the upper Great
Lakes region.

...Upper Great Lakes Region...
The back edge of a progressive short-wave trough has shifted into
western WI, per latest satellite imagery. Isolated thunderstorms
developed ahead of this feature several hours ago but with the loss
of daytime heating, limited buoyancy will become even weaker with
diurnal cooling. Radar imagery continues to exhibit scattered weak
convection arcing ahead of the short wave from the western tip of
Lake Superior into central WI. This activity may continue to produce
a few flashes given the large-scale support. However, 00z sounding
from GRB yielded no appreciable MUCAPE and moisture remains scant.
Will maintain 10 percent probability for thunderstorms immediately
downstream of this mid-level feature, but lightning should remain
sparse the rest of tonight.

..Darrow.. 10/15/2020

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