SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z


Minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous
United States on Thursday.


Large-scale heights are expected to fall across the mid-MS/OH Valley
region as upper troughing progresses into this region during the
latter half of the period. Another reinforcing continental air mass
will overspread much of the CONUS as a cold front settles southeast
through the period. This will effectively shunt higher-PW air mass
into the low latitudes, primarily across the coastal Plain of TX and
over the southern Gulf basin/south FL.

As much of the country gradually dries/stabilizes, deep convection
will become less likely. A few areas where isolated thunderstorms
may develop are, 1) TX-LA region, 2) Southeast, and 3) northern

TX/LA -- Surface front will surge south across TX during the day as
the primary short-wave trough digs toward the OH Valley. Although
low-level convergence will prove minimal along this boundary,
surface heating across deep south TX suggests parcels will be most
buoyant across this region. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along/post frontal as the wind shift moves into this region.

Southeast -- surface anticyclone will shift off the Atlantic coast
during the day which will allow more favorable low-level
trajectories and convergence to focus from the FL Peninsula into the
Carolinas. While forecast lapse rates are poor, models suggest
scattered convection will evolve along this favorable zone of
low-level convergence.

Northern Plains -- steep low-level lapse rates will develop across
the northern Plains later today as strong surface heating north of
the primary jet enhances instability. While moisture is quite low
across this region, forecast soundings suggest scattered weak
convection is possible. The strongest updrafts may produce a few
lightning flashes.

..Darrow/Moore.. 10/15/2020

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