SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough should continue to evolve eastward across
the central/eastern states on Friday. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to move southeastward across the Carolinas, GA, and
northern FL through the day. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should
be in place ahead of the front over parts of central and eastern
NC/SC, and modest surface heating may occur through Friday
afternoon. Mid-level southwesterly flow is also expected to
gradually strengthen across this region through the day. Even so,
mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very poor, which will
likely temper both instability and updraft strength. At this point,
the potential for thunderstorms to produce strong/gusty winds across
eastern NC/SC appears too low to include any severe probabilities.
Farther south, convection should develop ahead of the front along
sea breeze boundaries, primarily across the southern FL Peninsula.
Weak shear across this region should limit an organized severe
threat.

Farther north, elevated storms may occur on an isolated basis across
parts of southern New England in a low-level warm advection regime.
Other isolated storms appear possible across parts of south/coastal
TX along/near a front, and beneath the upper-level trough over parts
of the Great Lakes and MI where mid-level temperatures will be very
cold.

..Gleason.. 10/15/2020

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