SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough should continue to evolve eastward across the central/eastern states on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Carolinas, GA, and northern FL through the day. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of the front over parts of central and eastern NC/SC, and modest surface heating may occur through Friday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterly flow is also expected to gradually strengthen across this region through the day. Even so, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very poor, which will likely temper both instability and updraft strength. At this point, the potential for thunderstorms to produce strong/gusty winds across eastern NC/SC appears too low to include any severe probabilities. Farther south, convection should develop ahead of the front along sea breeze boundaries, primarily across the southern FL Peninsula. Weak shear across this region should limit an organized severe threat. Farther north, elevated storms may occur on an isolated basis across parts of southern New England in a low-level warm advection regime. Other isolated storms appear possible across parts of south/coastal TX along/near a front, and beneath the upper-level trough over parts of the Great Lakes and MI where mid-level temperatures will be very cold. ..Gleason.. 10/15/2020
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