SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A highly amplified upper trough should move northeastward across New
England on Saturday. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of this
feature may support a couple elevated storms across parts of the
immediate New England coast through the early afternoon, but
instability is expected to remain rather weak.

Farther south, convection may develop along sea breeze boundaries
across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. A decelerating
cold front across this region will likely serve as the northern
delimiter of thunderstorm potential. Weak deep-layer shear should
preclude an organized severe risk.

Low-level moisture is forecast to increase Saturday night across the
southern Plains and perhaps lower MS Valley as another shortwave
trough embedded within embedded within west-northwesterly mid-level
flow advances eastward from the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. However, elevated thunderstorm potential
appears highly uncertain, so have not included a general
thunderstorm area at this time.

..Gleason.. 10/15/2020

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