SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Discussion...
A large upper trough affecting much of the CONUS will advance slowly
eastward with time, with some digging expected on the southwestern
flank -- into the Mid South/Southeast.  By the end of the period, a
highly amplified trough with slight negative tilt is expected to
extend from central Canada to the southeastern U.S., while
large-scale ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific and adjacent
West Coast.

At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to sweep eastward
across the Northeast, and southeastward to the vicinity of the
Atlantic and Gulf Coasts by the end of the period.

As the front advances, showers and a few thunderstorms will occur in
a few areas -- including portions of the southern Atlantic Coast and
into Florida, and over portions of southeastern/southern Texas.  A
few showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes may also occur
this afternoon from the northern High Plains into Nebraska, as cold
air aloft within the upper trough combined with ascent associated
with southeastward-moving disturbances in the larger-scale cyclonic
flow yield isolated/low-topped convection.

..Goss.. 10/15/2020

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