SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today. ...Discussion... A large upper trough affecting much of the CONUS will advance slowly eastward with time, with some digging expected on the southwestern flank -- into the Mid South/Southeast. By the end of the period, a highly amplified trough with slight negative tilt is expected to extend from central Canada to the southeastern U.S., while large-scale ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific and adjacent West Coast. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to sweep eastward across the Northeast, and southeastward to the vicinity of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts by the end of the period. As the front advances, showers and a few thunderstorms will occur in a few areas -- including portions of the southern Atlantic Coast and into Florida, and over portions of southeastern/southern Texas. A few showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes may also occur this afternoon from the northern High Plains into Nebraska, as cold air aloft within the upper trough combined with ascent associated with southeastward-moving disturbances in the larger-scale cyclonic flow yield isolated/low-topped convection. ..Goss.. 10/15/2020
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