SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible across parts of south Texas and
across the Southeast.

...01z Update...

Latest diagnostic data suggests surface front continues its
southward movement across TX/LA. Over the last hour or so a few
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this boundary on a sea-breeze
front, across the coastal plain west through northeast of VCT. 00z
soundings from CRP and BRO exhibit substantial MUCAPE (>4000 J/kg),
but appreciable inhibition is noted around 850mb. While low-level
convergence should remain weak along the cold front, a conditional
threat for deep convection remains, especially given the observed
buoyancy.

A few very weak disturbances are noted across the Southeast this
evening. 00z soundings from FL to the Carolinas exhibit adequate
buoyancy for at least low thunder probabilities ahead of these
features overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/16/2020

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