SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will remain sparse across the country today. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains unfavorable for deep convection across much of the CONUS. Broad large-scale troughing is expected to dominate the country east of the Rockies through the period, though more zonal flow should evolve early this weekend. One notable short-wave trough will approach the middle Atlantic by late afternoon and this feature will induce a weak surface wave off the Carolina coast that will track north-northeast toward southern New England during the overnight hours, though offshore flow should hold across RI/MA. Scattered weak convection is possible along/near the east-coast frontal zone, but much of this activity should remain lightning-free. One area where lightning may be a bit more concentrated is across south FL. Higher-PW air mass has yet to be displaced across this portion of the warm sector, and forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy will be in place for deeper thermals capable of generating lightning. Farther north across the upper Great Lakes, profiles are expected to cool considerably through 6km as 500mb temperatures drop below -30C. With some boundary-layer heating, and westerly flow across Lake MI, it appears weak convection will evolve across this portion of the Great Lakes. Isolated flashes could be noted in the strongest updrafts. Across south TX, surface front is expected to settle south across deep south TX early in the period. Weak frontal ascent may contribute to a few elevated thunderstorms along the cool side of this boundary. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/16/2020
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