SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will remain sparse across the country today.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern remains unfavorable for deep convection across
much of the CONUS. Broad large-scale troughing is expected to
dominate the country east of the Rockies through the period, though
more zonal flow should evolve early this weekend. One notable
short-wave trough will approach the middle Atlantic by late
afternoon and this feature will induce a weak surface wave off the
Carolina coast that will track north-northeast toward southern New
England during the overnight hours, though offshore flow should hold
across RI/MA. Scattered weak convection is possible along/near the
east-coast frontal zone, but much of this activity should remain
lightning-free. One area where lightning may be a bit more
concentrated is across south FL. Higher-PW air mass has yet to be
displaced across this portion of the warm sector, and forecast
soundings suggest ample buoyancy will be in place for deeper
thermals capable of generating lightning.

Farther north across the upper Great Lakes, profiles are expected to
cool considerably through 6km as 500mb temperatures drop below -30C.
With some boundary-layer heating, and westerly flow across Lake MI,
it appears weak convection will evolve across this portion of the
Great Lakes. Isolated flashes could be noted in the strongest
updrafts.

Across south TX, surface front is expected to settle south across
deep south TX early in the period. Weak frontal ascent may
contribute to a few elevated thunderstorms along the cool side of
this boundary.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/16/2020

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