SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Severe-weather risk is expected to be very low today, with thunderstorm potential across the CONUS also limited to just a few regional areas. One of the most probable areas for thunderstorms will be across south Florida where a moisture-rich air mass resides. Diurnal destabilization could contribute to a few stronger storms with gusty winds into the afternoon. However, vertical shear will remain very weak, and overall destabilization will tend to be limited by semi-prevalent cloud cover and some ongoing early day showers/thunderstorms across the southern Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms may also occur today along an eastward-moving front across the Carolinas, and possibly into southern New England, as well as near a southward-moving boundary across south Texas. Farther north across the upper Great Lakes, thermodynamic profiles are expected to cool considerably with 500 mb temperatures dropping below -30C. With some boundary-layer heating, it appears weak convection will develop across this portion of the Great Lakes. Isolated lightning flashes could be noted in the strongest updrafts, primarily across parts of Michigan. ..Guyer.. 10/16/2020
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