SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Severe-weather risk is expected to be very low today, with
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS also limited to just a few
regional areas.

One of the most probable areas for thunderstorms will be across
south Florida where a moisture-rich air mass resides. Diurnal
destabilization could contribute to a few stronger storms with gusty
winds into the afternoon. However, vertical shear will remain very
weak, and overall destabilization will tend to be limited by
semi-prevalent cloud cover and some ongoing early day
showers/thunderstorms across the southern Florida Peninsula.

A few thunderstorms may also occur today along an eastward-moving
front across the Carolinas, and possibly into southern New England,
as well as near a southward-moving boundary across south Texas.
Farther north across the upper Great Lakes, thermodynamic profiles
are expected to cool considerably with 500 mb temperatures dropping
below -30C. With some boundary-layer heating, it appears weak
convection will develop across this portion of the Great Lakes.
Isolated lightning flashes could be noted in the strongest updrafts,
primarily across parts of Michigan.

..Guyer.. 10/16/2020

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