SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds will affect south Florida this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and considerable heating occurring over south FL, where dewpoints in the mid 70s and relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield max CAPE values over 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early/mid afternoon across this region, with the potential for pulses of intense updrafts/downdrafts. Very weak shear will limit overall organization, but the strongest cells might briefly produce gusty/damaging winds. Convection should stabilize the area by late afternoon, ending the severe threat. ...Great Lakes... A series of progressive shortwave troughs is moving across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today. One feature is currently over MN, and is expected to track into WI and MI this afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures and fast westerly flow aloft will promote fast-moving showers and occasional thunderstorms - some capable of small hail and gusty winds. Weak CAPE and limited low-level moisture should limit the risk of severe storms. ..Hart.. 10/16/2020
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