SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds will affect south
Florida this afternoon.

...South FL...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and considerable
heating occurring over south FL, where dewpoints in the mid 70s and
relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield max CAPE values
over 2000 J/kg this afternoon.  Thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the early/mid afternoon across this region, with the
potential for pulses of intense updrafts/downdrafts.  Very weak
shear will limit overall organization, but the strongest cells might
briefly produce gusty/damaging winds.  Convection should stabilize
the area by late afternoon, ending the severe threat.

...Great Lakes...
A series of progressive shortwave troughs is moving across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region today.  One feature is currently over
MN, and is expected to track into WI and MI this afternoon and
evening.  Cold temperatures and fast westerly flow aloft will
promote fast-moving showers and occasional thunderstorms - some
capable of small hail and gusty winds.  Weak CAPE and limited
low-level moisture should limit the risk of severe storms.

..Hart.. 10/16/2020

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