SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds remain possible over
south Florida this afternoon.

...South Florida...
Storms that formed over the moist, unstable air mass over far
southern Florida continue to overturn the instability, with cells
slowly propagating generally southwestward. Given that most of the
area is likely past peak, will remove the 5% severe wind area for
the rest of the day. Any wind threat should be quite isolated.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/

...South FL...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and considerable
heating occurring over south FL, where dewpoints in the mid 70s and
relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield max CAPE values
over 2000 J/kg this afternoon.  Thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the early/mid afternoon across this region, with the
potential for pulses of intense updrafts/downdrafts.  Very weak
shear will limit overall organization, but the strongest cells might
briefly produce gusty/damaging winds.  Convection should stabilize
the area by late afternoon, ending the severe threat.

...Great Lakes...
A series of progressive shortwave troughs is moving across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region today.  One feature is currently over
MN, and is expected to track into WI and MI this afternoon and
evening.  Cold temperatures and fast westerly flow aloft will
promote fast-moving showers and occasional thunderstorms - some
capable of small hail and gusty winds.  Weak CAPE and limited
low-level moisture should limit the risk of severe storms.

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