SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds remain possible over south Florida this afternoon. ...South Florida... Storms that formed over the moist, unstable air mass over far southern Florida continue to overturn the instability, with cells slowly propagating generally southwestward. Given that most of the area is likely past peak, will remove the 5% severe wind area for the rest of the day. Any wind threat should be quite isolated. ..Jewell.. 10/16/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and considerable heating occurring over south FL, where dewpoints in the mid 70s and relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield max CAPE values over 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early/mid afternoon across this region, with the potential for pulses of intense updrafts/downdrafts. Very weak shear will limit overall organization, but the strongest cells might briefly produce gusty/damaging winds. Convection should stabilize the area by late afternoon, ending the severe threat. ...Great Lakes... A series of progressive shortwave troughs is moving across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today. One feature is currently over MN, and is expected to track into WI and MI this afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures and fast westerly flow aloft will promote fast-moving showers and occasional thunderstorms - some capable of small hail and gusty winds. Weak CAPE and limited low-level moisture should limit the risk of severe storms.
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