SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will linger near the southern Florida Peninsula
and across portions of Lower Michigan.

...01z Update...

Significant convective overturning has occurred across south FL this
evening as a larger complex of storms is now shifting off the
southern Atlantic Coast. As the more focused corridor of low-level
confluence is shifting south of the Peninsula, thunderstorm
probabilities will lessen greatly across this region over the next
few hours.

Upper trough is shifting across the central Great Lakes this
evening. Very cool 500mb temperatures and steep lapse rates through
6km are contributing to an environment that is favorable for weak
convection and isolated lightning flashes, especially with showers
over the warmer waters of lake MI. This activity should spread east
over the next few hours then weaken as the upper trough shifts east.

..Darrow.. 10/17/2020

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