SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Lower MS Valley... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the middle of the country this weekend. Latest model guidance suggests several notable short-wave troughs will dig southeast across the northern Rockies toward the lower MS Valley. These features will collectively induce more favorable low-level trajectories for moisture to advance across the western Gulf basin through east TX into AR by the end of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase from central TX into northern AR during the latter half of the period and this should be the primary mechanism for ascent atop the boundary layer after sunset. Forecast soundings suggest profiles will become increasingly buoyant if lifting parcels near 850mb, and scattered convection should evolve across this region late. Modest mid-level lapse rates and strong cloud-layer shear suggest some of this activity could briefly organize; however, instability will likely be too limited to warrant any meaningful threat for severe probabilities. ...FL... As a strong surface anticyclone settles into southern New England, easterly low-level flow should deepen across the southern periphery of this feature over south FL. As a result, high-PW air mass will linger across this region with PW values expected to hold near 2 inches. Very moist profiles and poor lapse rates suggest mostly weak convection with opportunities for lightning at times. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/17/2020
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