SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal hail threat is expected to develop Sunday night in the Arklatex and Ozarks. ...Arklatex/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the western U.S. on Sunday and into the Great Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture will return northward across the southern Plains, Arklatex and Ozarks. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front from northeast Texas into Arkansas and Missouri from the late afternoon into the overnight period. Although moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of east Texas, a capping inversion will likely prevent convective development there. A few stronger thunderstorms could develop further northeast from the Arklatex into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly from Sunday evening into the overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday evening and overnight from Texarkana eastward to Little Rock suggest MUCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with effective shear of 30 to 35 kt. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km could be enough for a marginal hail threat, with the greatest threat between 06Z and 12Z. ..Broyles.. 10/17/2020
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