SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal hail threat is expected to develop Sunday night in the
Arklatex and Ozarks.

...Arklatex/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the western
U.S. on Sunday and into the Great Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the
system, low-level moisture will return northward across the southern
Plains, Arklatex and Ozarks. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to advance southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front from
northeast Texas into Arkansas and Missouri from the late afternoon
into the overnight period. Although moderate instability is forecast
to develop across much of east Texas, a capping inversion will
likely prevent convective development there. A few stronger
thunderstorms could develop further northeast from the Arklatex into
the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly from Sunday evening into the
overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday evening and overnight from
Texarkana eastward to Little Rock suggest MUCAPE will peak in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range with effective shear of 30 to 35 kt. This
combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km could be
enough for a marginal hail threat, with the greatest threat between
06Z and 12Z.

..Broyles.. 10/17/2020

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