SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong gusty winds will be
possible on Monday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southeastward across Arklatex, mid Mississippi
Valley and Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should
increase into the lower to mid 60s F across the mid Mississippi
Valley allowing for a narrow corridor of instability to develop
during the afternoon. As low-level convergence increases along and
just south of the front Monday afternoon, the formation of a line of
thunderstorms will be possible from Arkansas northeastward into
western Kentucky. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor for
00Z/Tuesday from near Little Rock have MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg with
0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Although MUCAPE decreases some with
northeastward extent, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 kt in
western Kentucky. The combination of instability and shear along
this corridor should be adequate for an isolated severe threat. Wind
damage and hail would be the primary hazards. Due to uncertainty
concerning the exact front position and magnitude of instability
will go with a marginal risk. The risk may need to be upgraded in
later outlooks for Monday but that will depend upon where parameters
become maximized in later model runs.

..Broyles.. 10/17/2020

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