SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Small to marginal hail may develop Sunday night mainly over northern
Arkansas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad belt of cyclonic flow aloft will persist over much of the
central and northern CONUS, with various embedded shortwaves. The
strongest wave will move from across the upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH River to
the Red River by 00Z.

South of this front, 60s F dewpoints will spread north across TX, LA
and AR, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. However, the warm sector
will likely remain capped. As such, thunderstorms are expected to
form north of the front when warm advection increases a bit
overnight. Small hail is not out of the question with elevated cells
that form after 06Z from northwest AR into far southern MO, as
deep-layer shear will be stronger there.

Elsewhere, a moist easterly flow regime will persist over FL, with
westward-propagating thunderstorms likely during the day. While
strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, neither instability nor shear
appear to favor severe weather.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2020

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