SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Small to marginal hail may develop Sunday night mainly over northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad belt of cyclonic flow aloft will persist over much of the central and northern CONUS, with various embedded shortwaves. The strongest wave will move from across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH River to the Red River by 00Z. South of this front, 60s F dewpoints will spread north across TX, LA and AR, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. However, the warm sector will likely remain capped. As such, thunderstorms are expected to form north of the front when warm advection increases a bit overnight. Small hail is not out of the question with elevated cells that form after 06Z from northwest AR into far southern MO, as deep-layer shear will be stronger there. Elsewhere, a moist easterly flow regime will persist over FL, with westward-propagating thunderstorms likely during the day. While strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, neither instability nor shear appear to favor severe weather. ..Jewell.. 10/17/2020
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