SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States tonight.

...AR Region...

No changes are warranted to the 20z outlook.

Although no changes to thunderstorm probabilities are forecast, 00z
soundings from FWD and LZK are a bit dryer than earlier NAM
suggested. 850mb had yet to saturate at LZK and 1km RH was also
lower at FWD than 12z models suggested. While moisture return is
somewhat retarded across this region, strengthening LLJ from
Northeast TX into AR later this evening should contribute to
moistening/buoyancy such that elevated convection should develop.
Instability will likely be inadequate for any meaningful threat for
severe hail.

..Darrow.. 10/18/2020

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