SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Rockies into the
Great Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the approaching trough, moisture
advection is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into
the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible from
Tuesday afternoon through the overnight period along the northern
edge of the moist sector from eastern parts of the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes. Model forecasts keep instability weak along
this corridor suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Although
a capping inversion will be in place across much of the southern
Plains, an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop along
pre-existing convergent boundaries across Texas or Oklahoma in weak
vertical shear. A few thunderstorms may also develop in the
Southeast where vertical shear will also be weak. Due to the weak
vertical shear, a severe threat is not expected in the southern tier
of the U.S.

..Broyles.. 10/18/2020

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