SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist across the majority of the CONUS. Persistent elevated moisture transport will contribute to a low/isolated potential for thunderstorms much of the day across the Ozarks/Mid-South toward the Lower Ohio Valley including western Kentucky/southern Illinois. However, the highest probability and potential coverage of thunderstorms is expected late tonight as a southwesterly low-level jet re-intensifies. A residual mid-level warm layer and only marginally steep mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit overall instability. While a couple of stronger elevated storms could occur late tonight mainly across northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri, the potential for severe-caliber hail is expected to be low. ...South Florida... Easterly low/mid-level flow along the southern periphery of an elongated upper ridge will maintain moist profiles across south Florida. With a moist air mass and relatively cloud-free skies early today, westward-drifting convection should develop/intensify into the afternoon. A few stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize, but overall lapse rates will tend to remain weak even with semi-cool temperatures aloft. Thus, organized severe potential should remain low. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/18/2020
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