SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist across the majority of
the CONUS. Persistent elevated moisture transport will contribute to
a low/isolated potential for thunderstorms much of the day across
the Ozarks/Mid-South toward the Lower Ohio Valley including western
Kentucky/southern Illinois. However, the highest probability and
potential coverage of thunderstorms is expected late tonight as a
southwesterly low-level jet re-intensifies. A residual mid-level
warm layer and only marginally steep mid-level lapse rates will tend
to limit overall instability. While a couple of stronger elevated
storms could occur late tonight mainly across northern Arkansas/far
southern Missouri, the potential for severe-caliber hail is expected
to be low.

...South Florida...
Easterly low/mid-level flow along the southern periphery of an
elongated upper ridge will maintain moist profiles across south
Florida. With a moist air mass and relatively cloud-free skies early
today, westward-drifting convection should develop/intensify into
the afternoon. A few stronger storms with gusty winds could
materialize, but overall lapse rates will tend to remain weak even
with semi-cool temperatures aloft. Thus, organized severe potential
should remain low.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/18/2020

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